Because unranked teams matter, too!
Toledo at Northern Illinois
I'll admit to knowing next to nothing about either of these teams except both had shots at SEC teams and both lost pretty big. At least Northern Illinois' loss came on the road though, so I'll pick them.
My Call: Northern Illinois 33, Toledo 31
East Carolina at Cincinnati
Second straight loss for East Carolina. Gunner Kiel outduels Shane Carden in a game where I wouldn't be surprised if 60 minutes proved to not be enough.
My Call: Cincinnati 44, East Carolina 41
California at USC
Although the Trojans can have all sorts of issues closing out games towards the end if they're close, I don't see that being too big an issue here. USC doesn't have a fantastic offense, but they'll put up some big points against that Cal defense and although Jared Goff could get some nice numbers of his own, he can't do it alone.
My Call: USC 41, California 27
Iowa at Illinois
Embarrassing loss for the Hawkeyes on the road against the Golden Gophers. Kirk Ferentz will fix some of what ailed his club in that game and it'll be enough to bounce back against the Illini.
My Call: Iowa 28, Illinois 24
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
With or without starting QB Travor Knight, I don't see this game being a huge issue for the Sooners. They can use their running game and relatively strong defense to pound their way to victory.
My Call: Oklahoma 35, Texas Tech 20
Indiana at Rutgers
Bowl eligibility comes for Rutgers with this win.
My Call: Rutgers 27, Indiana 17
Temple at Penn State
Thanks to a NCAA ruling, the Penn State football program is eligible for a return to postseason play this year. They become eligible with a home win over Temple, but it's close.
My Call: Penn State 20, Temple 17
South Carolina at Florida
Gonna go against smart thinking here and pick South Carolina. Why, you ask? Well, Steve Spurrier coached at Florida for many years and has had an extra week to get his club ready to go for this one. Give a great coach some extra incentive and it can lead to a small surprise.
My Call: South Carolina 34, Florida 30
Pittsburgh at North Carolina
No idea. I basically have to throw a dart here and hope for the best. Pitt running back James Connor will very likely tear apart UNC's poor defense, but I think UNC will have the answer in a close win.
My Call: North Carolina 32, Pittsburgh 28
Nevada at Air Force
Homefield advantage makes this pick for me.
My Call: Air Force 37, Nevada 31
Wake Forest at North Carolina State
Does another team wrap up bowl eligibility this week? You bet. NC State gets it done.
My Call: North Carolina State 30, Wake Forest 16
Georgia Southern at Navy
This game could be the one that quietly ends up being one of the better ones in college football this coming weekend but will get no coverage since all ESPN really cares about is the teams still in the hunt for the playoff. Gonna roll with Georgia Southern. They won at Florida last year, only lost by 4 on the road to Georgia Tech and only by a point to NC STate this year.
My Call: Georgia Southern 45, Navy 42
Kentucky at Tennessee
Big game for both teams here as Kentucky becomes bowl eligible with a win and for Tennessee, they'd have to like their chances at bowl eligibility if they can win this game as a home game with Vanderbilt remains on the schedule (along with a road game at Missouri). If Kentucky doesn't get it done here, they'll have to do it at Louisville. That gives them incentive, but I like the Vols. They're the more talented club here and at home.
My Call: Tennessee 26, Kentucky 16
Texas at Oklahoma State
With trips to Waco and Norman on tap after this game, this amounts to essentially a must win for Oklahoma State if they want to make a bowl game. Texas is in the same sort of situation as their last game of the season is at home against TCU. They could make that game a bit tricky for the Horned Frogs, but I don't like their chances. I'll take the Pokes at home and have no confidence whatsoever in the pick.
My Call: Oklahoma State 17, Texas 16
San Diego State at Boise State
That blue turf and the Broncos team will prove too much for San Diego State.
My Call: Boise State 30, San Diego State 13
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)
Using AP Poll rankings like always. I went 20-10 with my predictions a week ago, putting me at 253-93 for the season. Let's see how I do this week.
#1 Mississippi State at #4 Alabama
Now comes the biggest test of the season for the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Heisman candidate Dak Prescott. A trip to Tuscaloosa to take on not only the Alabama football team, but also what will be a hundred thousand jacked up fans. My hope is Dak is healthy because he wasn't moving around that well towards the end of the Kentucky game. I think he needs to be if the Bulldogs are going to make it out of Bryant-Denny Stadium with a victory. This should be a nice slug it out defensive battle. As much as I hate em as an Auburn fan (hey, they hate us too lol), it's too tough for me to pick against the Tide in this game when it's being played in their home stadium. A deep ball throw and catch by Blake Sims and Amari Cooper makes the difference.
My Call: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 20
#2 Florida State at Miami (FL)
A fantastic rivalry that's lost a bit of luster over the years is set to take place this week. Do the Canes have a chance? Sure, anything can happen on any given day and this Florida State team, although undefeated, has not looked as strong as last year's version was. However, I just don't think Miami has enough on either side of the ball to make it happen. Canes star running back Duke Johnson will do his best, but the FSU defense will force the true freshman QB Brad Kaaya into a couple mistakes that Jameis Winston won't make and the Noles will gradually pull away in the second half.
My Call: Florida State 40, Miami (FL) 27
#5 TCU at Kansas
Kansas picked up its first Big 12 win of the season against Iowa State. Can they possibly muster up what it would take to beat the Horned Frogs and make it two straight? Yes, but they won't even come close. Trevone Boykin will dazzle with both his feet and arm and this will get ugly early. Sorry, Kansas fans. At least basketball is just around the corner and the script will flip then!
My Call: TCU 48, Kansas 10
#7 Arizona State at Oregon State
Sometimes things just naturally happen. After an emotional overtime victory over Utah and a big win over Notre Dame (albeit the Irish were vastly overrated), I think it'll only be natural for the Sun Devils to have a bit of a letdown against Oregon State. They need to be a bit careful of that on the road in particular, but let's be honest, ASU would have to lay quite the egg to lose this game to the Beavers, even on the road. They won't do that. I could see a close first half ensuing, but ASU will right the ship and take control in the 2nd half.
My Call: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 24
#8 Ohio State at Minnesota
Revenge is a dish best served cold. And Ohio State served exactly that to Michigan State on the road in East Lansing in their 49-37 win over Michigan State to somewhat make amends for last season's Big 10 Championship Game defeat. Now the Buckeyes are in complete control of their own destination, needing to beat just Minnesota here and then Indiana and Michigan at home to get back to the conference title game. It's been a somewhat surprising 7-2 season for the Gophers, which has to make a guy like me happy for their coach, Jerry Kill. Over the years, Coach Kill has suffered from multiple seizures which has affected his ability to be on the sidelines coaching on gameday. That also makes a guy like me wish I could pick his team in this big game for his program, but I just can't do it. Ohio State seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now and although the Gophers will give it their best, they just don't have the talent to match the Buckeyes for 60 minutes.
My Call: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 24
#11 Nebraska at #22 Wisconsin
Do you like great running backs and two teams whose primary color is red? Then this is the game for you as Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon will be trading barb for barb all game long. You just know these two guys will want to show up one another in what should be a very exciting matchup to watch. Both of them have excellent games and in letting the home field make this pick for me, I'll go with the Badgers by a field goal. So technically, this game funnily enough won't come down to either of them. It'll come down to the kicker, and the Wisconsin kicker wins it.
My Call: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 31
#12 Michigan State at Maryland
Those revenge minded Buckeyes proved too strong for Michigan State, who will look to bounce back with a road victory over the Terps. And I think they get it. Maryland just isn't anywhere near as strong on either side of the ball as Ohio State. Plus how can anyone want to pick Maryland after that classless display where they refused to shake hands with Penn State players at midfield?
My Call: Michigan State 28, Maryland 20
Northwestern at #15 Notre Dame
Yes, I wrote above in the ASU game preview about how vastly overrated Notre Dame was. That doesn't mean they won't beat teams like Northwestern. These are the type of teams the Irish feast on; and they'll feast on the Wildcats for sure in what should be a comfortable victory.
My Call: Notre Dame 27, Northwestern 10
Washington at #17 Arizona
In a game that could prove to be a bit more difficult for the Wildcats than perhaps it should be, they'll prevail over a Washington team that isn't consistent enough offensively.
My Call: Arizona 26, Washington 21
#18 Clemson at #24 Georgia Tech
I am gonna go out on a limb and make two predictions for this game... that true freshman Deshaun Watson will be back under center starting for Clemson but Georgia Tech wins. Sorry, Clemson. I know you may not like them apples, but at least my predictions don't always come true, right?
My Call: Georgia Tech 31, Clemson 28
Virginia Tech at #19 Duke
Funnily enough, as bad as Virginia Tech has been since the Ohio State game and even though I can be as hard on them as anyone, calling them the most overrated team/program in the country over the last 8 or so years, it wouldn't shock me much at all if Frank Beamer was able to coax one more surprising win out of this Hokies team this season. And it wouldn't shock me if this where it happens. I'm not going to predict it to happen because as I said a couple weeks ago when they played Boston College at home, I'm not picking the Hokies until they show me they can be the better team in the stadium again. Duke in a close one.
My Call: Duke 21, Virginia Tech 17
#20 LSU at Arkansas
Upset! Finally, Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema picks up his first SEC victory. Although this may seem a bit crazy on the surface, LSU/Arkansas games are typically close and hard fought. Arkansas rested up while LSU is coming off a draining overtime loss to Alabama. That to me makes them vulnerable in this one. The Razorbacks won't blow em out of the stadium, but I think they have what it takes to finally figure out a way in conference play.
My Call: Arkansas 23, LSU 19
Rice at #21 Marshall
Although the Owls may well be the best team Marshall faces in Conference USA play, it's just too tough to bet against the Herd and Rakeem Cato... especially at home.
My Call: Marshall 34, Rice 20
#25 Utah at Stanford
Very little scoring and hard hitting defense should be the theme of this game. I'll say Stanford fixes their red zone issues to some degree in this one, leading to a close victory.
My Call: Stanford 21, Utah 19
#1 Mississippi State at #4 Alabama
Now comes the biggest test of the season for the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Heisman candidate Dak Prescott. A trip to Tuscaloosa to take on not only the Alabama football team, but also what will be a hundred thousand jacked up fans. My hope is Dak is healthy because he wasn't moving around that well towards the end of the Kentucky game. I think he needs to be if the Bulldogs are going to make it out of Bryant-Denny Stadium with a victory. This should be a nice slug it out defensive battle. As much as I hate em as an Auburn fan (hey, they hate us too lol), it's too tough for me to pick against the Tide in this game when it's being played in their home stadium. A deep ball throw and catch by Blake Sims and Amari Cooper makes the difference.
My Call: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 20
#2 Florida State at Miami (FL)
A fantastic rivalry that's lost a bit of luster over the years is set to take place this week. Do the Canes have a chance? Sure, anything can happen on any given day and this Florida State team, although undefeated, has not looked as strong as last year's version was. However, I just don't think Miami has enough on either side of the ball to make it happen. Canes star running back Duke Johnson will do his best, but the FSU defense will force the true freshman QB Brad Kaaya into a couple mistakes that Jameis Winston won't make and the Noles will gradually pull away in the second half.
My Call: Florida State 40, Miami (FL) 27
#5 TCU at Kansas
Kansas picked up its first Big 12 win of the season against Iowa State. Can they possibly muster up what it would take to beat the Horned Frogs and make it two straight? Yes, but they won't even come close. Trevone Boykin will dazzle with both his feet and arm and this will get ugly early. Sorry, Kansas fans. At least basketball is just around the corner and the script will flip then!
My Call: TCU 48, Kansas 10
#7 Arizona State at Oregon State
Sometimes things just naturally happen. After an emotional overtime victory over Utah and a big win over Notre Dame (albeit the Irish were vastly overrated), I think it'll only be natural for the Sun Devils to have a bit of a letdown against Oregon State. They need to be a bit careful of that on the road in particular, but let's be honest, ASU would have to lay quite the egg to lose this game to the Beavers, even on the road. They won't do that. I could see a close first half ensuing, but ASU will right the ship and take control in the 2nd half.
My Call: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 24
#8 Ohio State at Minnesota
Revenge is a dish best served cold. And Ohio State served exactly that to Michigan State on the road in East Lansing in their 49-37 win over Michigan State to somewhat make amends for last season's Big 10 Championship Game defeat. Now the Buckeyes are in complete control of their own destination, needing to beat just Minnesota here and then Indiana and Michigan at home to get back to the conference title game. It's been a somewhat surprising 7-2 season for the Gophers, which has to make a guy like me happy for their coach, Jerry Kill. Over the years, Coach Kill has suffered from multiple seizures which has affected his ability to be on the sidelines coaching on gameday. That also makes a guy like me wish I could pick his team in this big game for his program, but I just can't do it. Ohio State seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now and although the Gophers will give it their best, they just don't have the talent to match the Buckeyes for 60 minutes.
My Call: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 24
#11 Nebraska at #22 Wisconsin
Do you like great running backs and two teams whose primary color is red? Then this is the game for you as Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon will be trading barb for barb all game long. You just know these two guys will want to show up one another in what should be a very exciting matchup to watch. Both of them have excellent games and in letting the home field make this pick for me, I'll go with the Badgers by a field goal. So technically, this game funnily enough won't come down to either of them. It'll come down to the kicker, and the Wisconsin kicker wins it.
My Call: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 31
#12 Michigan State at Maryland
Those revenge minded Buckeyes proved too strong for Michigan State, who will look to bounce back with a road victory over the Terps. And I think they get it. Maryland just isn't anywhere near as strong on either side of the ball as Ohio State. Plus how can anyone want to pick Maryland after that classless display where they refused to shake hands with Penn State players at midfield?
My Call: Michigan State 28, Maryland 20
Northwestern at #15 Notre Dame
Yes, I wrote above in the ASU game preview about how vastly overrated Notre Dame was. That doesn't mean they won't beat teams like Northwestern. These are the type of teams the Irish feast on; and they'll feast on the Wildcats for sure in what should be a comfortable victory.
My Call: Notre Dame 27, Northwestern 10
Washington at #17 Arizona
In a game that could prove to be a bit more difficult for the Wildcats than perhaps it should be, they'll prevail over a Washington team that isn't consistent enough offensively.
My Call: Arizona 26, Washington 21
#18 Clemson at #24 Georgia Tech
I am gonna go out on a limb and make two predictions for this game... that true freshman Deshaun Watson will be back under center starting for Clemson but Georgia Tech wins. Sorry, Clemson. I know you may not like them apples, but at least my predictions don't always come true, right?
My Call: Georgia Tech 31, Clemson 28
Virginia Tech at #19 Duke
Funnily enough, as bad as Virginia Tech has been since the Ohio State game and even though I can be as hard on them as anyone, calling them the most overrated team/program in the country over the last 8 or so years, it wouldn't shock me much at all if Frank Beamer was able to coax one more surprising win out of this Hokies team this season. And it wouldn't shock me if this where it happens. I'm not going to predict it to happen because as I said a couple weeks ago when they played Boston College at home, I'm not picking the Hokies until they show me they can be the better team in the stadium again. Duke in a close one.
My Call: Duke 21, Virginia Tech 17
#20 LSU at Arkansas
Upset! Finally, Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema picks up his first SEC victory. Although this may seem a bit crazy on the surface, LSU/Arkansas games are typically close and hard fought. Arkansas rested up while LSU is coming off a draining overtime loss to Alabama. That to me makes them vulnerable in this one. The Razorbacks won't blow em out of the stadium, but I think they have what it takes to finally figure out a way in conference play.
My Call: Arkansas 23, LSU 19
Rice at #21 Marshall
Although the Owls may well be the best team Marshall faces in Conference USA play, it's just too tough to bet against the Herd and Rakeem Cato... especially at home.
My Call: Marshall 34, Rice 20
#25 Utah at Stanford
Very little scoring and hard hitting defense should be the theme of this game. I'll say Stanford fixes their red zone issues to some degree in this one, leading to a close victory.
My Call: Stanford 21, Utah 19
Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (at Georgia)
These long time rivals are both likely out of the College Football Playoff picture with Auburn's most recent loss at home to Texas A&M where a lack of pass defense, a blocked field goal and two costly fumbles at the end of the game, including one on the Texas A&M three yard line did them in during a 41-38 loss. Georgia's fate was likely sealed the week before with a 38-13 loss to Florida. However, that doesn't mean there still isn't plenty for both of these teams to play for. You've got both teams still gunning for their eighth wins of the season, Georgia looking to even up the all-time series mark at 55 wins apiece, bowl game ramifications and both still have a chance at winning their divisions. Georgia is one loss behind one loss Missouri, but if they can beat Auburn and Missouri loses one of its remaining games, they could still win the SEC East crown. Actually, it's not impossible they could win the SEC East even with a loss to Auburn. They'd just need Missouri to lose two of its remaining games and have Florida lose to South Carolina. Florida losing to Florida State could help them in a tiebreaker situation. Auburn needs a bit more help to win the SEC West. They need to win this one and also beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but also need Mississippi State to lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss and it would help a lot if Ole Miss lost to Arkansas. What a mess all this would create!
Speaking of a mess, that's what last year's meeting at Jordan-Hare Stadium turned into at the end as one team coughed up a big lead only to see a miracle turn what looked to be a devastating loss into an improbably victory. Auburn seemed to be on their way to an easy win, leading by 20 early in the 4th quarter. But Georgia had other ideas, scoring 21 straight points to take a 38-37 lead with just under two minutes to play. Then it looked like Georgia would win as Auburn was facing a 4th and 18 in their own territory. However, a prayer thrown by Nick Marshall miraculously bounced off of two Georgia defensive backs and into the arms of an unexpecting Ricardo Louis, who sprinted the rest of the way towards the end zone in what was known as "The Prayer At Jordan-Hare." Auburn would hang on to win from there 43-38 in what turned out to be a classic. Will we have another classic here or will we have more of a ho hum type game/win for one of these teams? I don't know, but we can take a look at the Georgia Bulldogs and what they bring to the table.
It's been somewhat of a strange season for them as in some stretches, they look like a team some people thought could possibly be one of the best teams in college football while at other stretches, in particular the Florida game, they look like they have no business even being called a middle of the road SEC team. It's been more good than bad though as they enter this game with a 7-2 record, a 5-2 mark in SEC play. As was mentioned, one of those two losses came to Florida, a game which annually takes place in Jacksonville. Their other loss came on the road to South Carolina, which was very early in the season. Their home wins are over Clemson, Tennessee, Troy and Vanderbilt while their road wins have come at Missouri, Arkansas and most recently, a 63-31 romp at Kentucky in which they built up a 21-0 lead through one quarter and really never looked back. On offense, Georgia is led by its fantastic running game. Todd Gurley will be back for this game after serving a four game suspension for allegedly accepting payments on autographed merchandise. The Dawgs managed a 3-1 record without him; very much in large part due to true freshman tailback Nick Chubb. In Gurley's absence, Chubb has rushed for at least 143 yards and a touchdown in each of the last four games. On the season, he has rushed for 895 yards and 7 touchdowns on 133 carries. Prior to his suspension, Todd Gurley had rushed for 773 yards and 7 scores on 94 carries. Both these guys are big and fast. Auburn's run defense will need to be considerably better than it was during the Texas A&M game if they have any hope of at least containing these two guys. I see at least containing because I don't think they can be fully stopped.
Some good news for Auburn's secondary is Aaron Murray is no longer the quarterback at Georgia. This is no knock on current Georgia QB Hutson Mason, but Murray broke just about every passing record in Georgia history and put up some great numbers against Auburn during his time in college. He is now a backup QB with the Kansas City Chiefs and ironically enough, is a teammate of ex-Auburn Tiger Dee Ford. Both of whom were part of the Chiefs 2014 draft class. To get back to Hutson Mason, here's a guy who patiently awaited his turn while Aaron Murray was breaking just about every passing record in school history. He started the last two games for Georgia a season ago due to an injury to Murray and did a solid job. This year, he's been more of one of those "game manager" types as some people like to call them while mostly deferring to the great running back duo of Chubb and Gurley. On the year, Mason has thrown for 1515 yards and 15 touchdowns. Those numbers may not scream out greatness on the surface, but he's been very accurate, completing 69 percent of his passes and throwing just three interceptions. Those numbers aren't too unlike what the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith) does. His best, most efficient game just took place in that 63-31 rout over Kentucky. He only completed 13 passes for just 174 yards, but he also had 4 TD passes which was a career high and threw no interceptions on just 16 passes. With Auburn having issues creating a pass rush and having a poor secondary, another solid/steady if not great game may well be in the cards for Mason.
On defense, Georgia doesn't have any one particular guy who is dominant in the fashion Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett might be (Myles Garrett is a freaking animal), but they get a lot of solid, steady contributions from a number of different players. The leader may be sophomore outside linebacker Leonard Floyd. As a true freshman, he contributed 6.5 sacks and 9.5 TFL. At 5 sacks at 6.5 TFL so far this year, those numbers appear to be in reach for a second straight year. Amarlo Herrera, Jordan Jenkins and Lorenzo Carter have also been solid and steady. Herrera has 3 sacks and 8 TFL, Jenkins has 3.5 sacks and 7 TFL while Carter has a 3 sack, 5 TFL year going. The secondary is paced by Damian Swann and Quincy Mauger. Both of them have three interceptions on the year. It could still be a couple years for Floyd, Jenkins, Carter and Mauger, but these guys are all on the radar of NFL teams early in their college careers while senior corner Damian Swann seems to be considered a late third day pick for the 2015 Draft at this time.
For Auburn QB Nick Marshall, this is a homecoming of sorts for him. He actually signed with Georgia out of high school to be a defensive back and was pretty highly regarded as a 4 star guy, but got into trouble along with two other teammates for stealing and was ultimately dismissed. He went to Garden City Community College for a year before choosing to sign with Auburn as part of their 2013 recruiting class. He chose Auburn over Kansas State as he wanted to get a chance to be a starting QB in the SEC; and he's been quite good in his two years at the helm. No doubt he'll be looking to stick it to his old team on their home field. He'll have to do so without the services of D'haquille Williams, who sprained a ligament in his right knee during Auburn's loss to Texas A&M. The door is open for Duke to return before the end of the season, but as I said, it won't happen for this game. Looking at this game, I'm thinking Auburn should be able to run the ball effectively on Georgia's defense given that Florida was able to do it. The question for me is can they get pressure on Hutson Mason? I'm not so sure. If they don't, it'll be another very long day for the defense as even if Mason were terrible, he'd still have Chubb and Gurley to hand the ball off to. Till I see it happen, I just can't think the Tigers will be able to slow anyone with even just a halfway decent passing game down. Maybe this is just me hoping for another reverse jinx like I got with the Ole Miss game when I picked against my own team, but I'm doing it again here. Chubb and Gurley pace the Georgia offense while Mason is solid and steady. And that proves to be just enough.
My Call: Georgia 38, Auburn 35
Speaking of a mess, that's what last year's meeting at Jordan-Hare Stadium turned into at the end as one team coughed up a big lead only to see a miracle turn what looked to be a devastating loss into an improbably victory. Auburn seemed to be on their way to an easy win, leading by 20 early in the 4th quarter. But Georgia had other ideas, scoring 21 straight points to take a 38-37 lead with just under two minutes to play. Then it looked like Georgia would win as Auburn was facing a 4th and 18 in their own territory. However, a prayer thrown by Nick Marshall miraculously bounced off of two Georgia defensive backs and into the arms of an unexpecting Ricardo Louis, who sprinted the rest of the way towards the end zone in what was known as "The Prayer At Jordan-Hare." Auburn would hang on to win from there 43-38 in what turned out to be a classic. Will we have another classic here or will we have more of a ho hum type game/win for one of these teams? I don't know, but we can take a look at the Georgia Bulldogs and what they bring to the table.
It's been somewhat of a strange season for them as in some stretches, they look like a team some people thought could possibly be one of the best teams in college football while at other stretches, in particular the Florida game, they look like they have no business even being called a middle of the road SEC team. It's been more good than bad though as they enter this game with a 7-2 record, a 5-2 mark in SEC play. As was mentioned, one of those two losses came to Florida, a game which annually takes place in Jacksonville. Their other loss came on the road to South Carolina, which was very early in the season. Their home wins are over Clemson, Tennessee, Troy and Vanderbilt while their road wins have come at Missouri, Arkansas and most recently, a 63-31 romp at Kentucky in which they built up a 21-0 lead through one quarter and really never looked back. On offense, Georgia is led by its fantastic running game. Todd Gurley will be back for this game after serving a four game suspension for allegedly accepting payments on autographed merchandise. The Dawgs managed a 3-1 record without him; very much in large part due to true freshman tailback Nick Chubb. In Gurley's absence, Chubb has rushed for at least 143 yards and a touchdown in each of the last four games. On the season, he has rushed for 895 yards and 7 touchdowns on 133 carries. Prior to his suspension, Todd Gurley had rushed for 773 yards and 7 scores on 94 carries. Both these guys are big and fast. Auburn's run defense will need to be considerably better than it was during the Texas A&M game if they have any hope of at least containing these two guys. I see at least containing because I don't think they can be fully stopped.
Some good news for Auburn's secondary is Aaron Murray is no longer the quarterback at Georgia. This is no knock on current Georgia QB Hutson Mason, but Murray broke just about every passing record in Georgia history and put up some great numbers against Auburn during his time in college. He is now a backup QB with the Kansas City Chiefs and ironically enough, is a teammate of ex-Auburn Tiger Dee Ford. Both of whom were part of the Chiefs 2014 draft class. To get back to Hutson Mason, here's a guy who patiently awaited his turn while Aaron Murray was breaking just about every passing record in school history. He started the last two games for Georgia a season ago due to an injury to Murray and did a solid job. This year, he's been more of one of those "game manager" types as some people like to call them while mostly deferring to the great running back duo of Chubb and Gurley. On the year, Mason has thrown for 1515 yards and 15 touchdowns. Those numbers may not scream out greatness on the surface, but he's been very accurate, completing 69 percent of his passes and throwing just three interceptions. Those numbers aren't too unlike what the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith) does. His best, most efficient game just took place in that 63-31 rout over Kentucky. He only completed 13 passes for just 174 yards, but he also had 4 TD passes which was a career high and threw no interceptions on just 16 passes. With Auburn having issues creating a pass rush and having a poor secondary, another solid/steady if not great game may well be in the cards for Mason.
On defense, Georgia doesn't have any one particular guy who is dominant in the fashion Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett might be (Myles Garrett is a freaking animal), but they get a lot of solid, steady contributions from a number of different players. The leader may be sophomore outside linebacker Leonard Floyd. As a true freshman, he contributed 6.5 sacks and 9.5 TFL. At 5 sacks at 6.5 TFL so far this year, those numbers appear to be in reach for a second straight year. Amarlo Herrera, Jordan Jenkins and Lorenzo Carter have also been solid and steady. Herrera has 3 sacks and 8 TFL, Jenkins has 3.5 sacks and 7 TFL while Carter has a 3 sack, 5 TFL year going. The secondary is paced by Damian Swann and Quincy Mauger. Both of them have three interceptions on the year. It could still be a couple years for Floyd, Jenkins, Carter and Mauger, but these guys are all on the radar of NFL teams early in their college careers while senior corner Damian Swann seems to be considered a late third day pick for the 2015 Draft at this time.
For Auburn QB Nick Marshall, this is a homecoming of sorts for him. He actually signed with Georgia out of high school to be a defensive back and was pretty highly regarded as a 4 star guy, but got into trouble along with two other teammates for stealing and was ultimately dismissed. He went to Garden City Community College for a year before choosing to sign with Auburn as part of their 2013 recruiting class. He chose Auburn over Kansas State as he wanted to get a chance to be a starting QB in the SEC; and he's been quite good in his two years at the helm. No doubt he'll be looking to stick it to his old team on their home field. He'll have to do so without the services of D'haquille Williams, who sprained a ligament in his right knee during Auburn's loss to Texas A&M. The door is open for Duke to return before the end of the season, but as I said, it won't happen for this game. Looking at this game, I'm thinking Auburn should be able to run the ball effectively on Georgia's defense given that Florida was able to do it. The question for me is can they get pressure on Hutson Mason? I'm not so sure. If they don't, it'll be another very long day for the defense as even if Mason were terrible, he'd still have Chubb and Gurley to hand the ball off to. Till I see it happen, I just can't think the Tigers will be able to slow anyone with even just a halfway decent passing game down. Maybe this is just me hoping for another reverse jinx like I got with the Ole Miss game when I picked against my own team, but I'm doing it again here. Chubb and Gurley pace the Georgia offense while Mason is solid and steady. And that proves to be just enough.
My Call: Georgia 38, Auburn 35
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